4 Key Takeaways to Manage Uncertainty as we approach the ‘New Normal’

Even as many countries are starting to tentatively reopen, we are already getting reports of new outbreaks and ‘second waves’ of infection. A prolonged period of economic uncertainty awaits us, and it is therefore imperative that we find ways to make our businesses as robust as possible to endure tough times. We need to learn how to manage uncertainty as we approach the New Normal. 

During our webinar with BrioHR, a HR management software company, and Assistant Professor Vaughn Tan from the UCL School of Management, we discussed how companies should prepare to manage uncertainty. 

4 Key Takeaways

1. Be cautious about excessive optimism 

Even though lockdowns are being lifted, and the economy is slowly reopening, we should not be overly optimistic. The impact of COVID-19 on the global economy will be unprecedented. 77% of the CEOs in the 2020 Fortune 500 list believe that it will take at least 2 years for economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels. 

We must therefore remain cautious and prepare our companies for the possibility that uncertainty and volatility will be a permanent feature of how we live and work. Because chances are, it already is. 

When do you think businesses will return to 'normal' ?

When asked how long business will take to return to ‘normal’, half our audience thought it would take 12 months or less. But Vaughn had a different view. He believes that it will take at least 18 – 24 months for businesses to get back to ‘normal’. This would already be the most optimistic scenario, as 18 – 24 months would represent the fastest time taken for a vaccine to be made, tested and brought to market.  

2. Embrace the ‘new normal’

Uncertainty can debilitate companies, causing them to refuse to take substantive action. Apprehension in such instances will hinder their ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

" We should not wait for clarity and certainty to appear. Instead, we should create it. "

Vaughn Tan

Vaughn cautioned against the passive approach to uncertainty. 

Rather than be paralyzed by inaction, we should face uncertainty head-on. We must take a proactive approach and try to create clarity for our companies, instead of waiting for certainty that might never arrive. 

We can create clarity for ourselves by putting in place business processes that are robust enough to handle the worst-case scenario, instead of just hoping that things will stabilize so we can go back to the old ways.

 A simple example of this is operational improvement by setting up processes to recruit staff remotely as a permanent feature of the way we work, rather than seeing it as an inconvenience until we can return to the office. This replaces uncertainty (i.e. ‘when can we go back to doing face-to-face interviews’) with clarity (‘we will from now on expect to hire candidates without ever meeting them’).

“ Uncertainty creates space for new, better ways of doing things. Combine realism with imagination when thinking of new solutions. ”

Vaughn Tan

3. Create new business models

Seize the opportunity given by uncertainty to create new operational and business models to pave the way for the future of work. We need an action plan that is able to crisis-proof our business by having realistic alternatives for all our processes in the event of the worst outcome.

“ Previous business models are gone for now - and some maybe even gone for good. ”

Vaughn Tan

He warned that some business models no longer work in the ‘new normal’, and companies that fail to learn and adapt to find new business models suited to the current economic climate are at risk of falling behind. 

For example, a F&B company will need to ask themselves how they can pivot the model if they can no longer run at the old capacity on an ongoing basis. How will they change their menu offerings to lower unit costs, while providing food that customers are keen to buy? Would they reconfigure their space for alternative uses? The results can be surprising – who could have imagined that the world’s best restaurant, Noma in Copenhagen, would reopen as a takeaway-only burger bar?

4. Establish new operational models

“ Our mindset needs to shift from what if, to what-when. “

Eugene Goh

We need to start making shifts to move into the ‘new normal’, and not assume the old normal will restore itself in time. The old norm of work where everyone goes to physical offices has been disrupted. We have to accept that work from home (WFH) arrangements have become the new norm, and it is expected to persist beyond the pandemic. This is a move that would be welcomed by most workers, as shown in multiple global surveys.

When do you think businesses will return to 'normal' ?

When asked how prepared organisations are if things do not revert back to the old normal in 6 months, the majority of our audience believe that their organisation is still in the midst of making the shift. In contrast, global leaders such as Google have already accepted WFH as the new norm, and we should not be left behind.

WFH is no longer an optional perk. It has become essential that we build our people, processes, and policies around the WFH model. This gives businesses resilience against future waves of infection (or other disruptions) that could send us scurrying back to our home offices.

“ Get more flexibility to scale up and down your workforce by moving away from a hundred percent full time employee model towards a portfolio of different contract types. “

Eugene Goh

Besides WFH, we should also begin to rethink contracting, and consider flexible work arrangements. Instead of solely hiring full-time employees, we should be open to hiring staff on a part-time, contract and freelance basis as well. This enables us to scale up and down depending on the economic situation.

Are your companies prepared for remote working in the long term?

Stay tuned for our next article on how you can support WFH arrangements for your company through
4Ps – People, Policies, Processes and Perception.

Catch the full webinar below to find out more about how you and your company can approach
the ‘New Normal’ in the face of uncertainty!

Download the ‘Managing Uncertainty’ webinar slides here.

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